Back From "Vacation"

Good Evening Everyone,

Sorry guys, I've really had a rough start to this blog thing... I got sick with the flu last week, and was really hit hard by it. I was out of commission for quite a while, and didn't feel like doing much, especially working on my blog. In addition, my XIV position is still in the red, which is a bit frustrating. However, things have not changed for me. I'm still looking for the VIX to come down to at least around the 15 level. I'm also still expecting XIV to come back to at least our break-even point. The only thing that worries me is that today's action broke though the trend line connecting the lows dating back to 6/4/12. I'm not too worried though because we've bounced off the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart, which is been a turning point for XIV. I know my performance thus far has been lackluster, but I'm confident we will come out ahead.

Recap: Continue holding XIV positions or UVXY shorts.

Date	Account Value	Total Gain/Loss	Total Percentage Gain/Loss
10/17/2012	$10,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
10/18/2012	$9,989.16	($10.84)	-0.11%
10/19/2012	$9,365.86	($634.14)	-6.77%
10/22/2012	$9,485.10	($514.90)	-5.43%
11/5/2012	$8,986.46	($1,013.54)	-11.28%

Not Scared Yet

Hello Everyone,

First, I'd like to apologize for not posting on Friday. For one, it had been a long week, and Friday really topped it with a solid beat down on my XIV position. The good news is that there is no problem in the position, and I haven't changed my mind about where we're at. Sure, we missed a chance to make some great money on UVXY, and lost a bit on XIV. That being said, when I'm wrong, I like to be right on a long term basis. What we know is, UVXY will go down, and that constant downward pressure on UVXY will benefit those who are invested in XIV. That's where we're at. My first post did say that I like to capitalize on the short term swings in UVXY, but nobody can get it right every time.

While the dramatic drop in XIV did scare me on Friday, I was not concerned with the potential success of my position in XIV. My purchase price was much too high, but that happens, and we'll get it back.XIV has held my lower trendline, and it has actually bounced off of it. The VIX pushed upward strongly on Friday, but did not continue its push today. To me, that shows weakness in the VIX, which will bring it down. The best part about this trade is that since VIX futures were pushed up higher on Friday, they have further to fall until they reach our target. That means more money for us MoneyChasers.

Recap: Continue holding XIV or UVXY shorts until VIX comes down near 13.60. We are still tracking a moving target of XIV somewhere near $19.25.

 

Date	Account Value	Total Gain/Loss	Total Percentage Gain/Loss
10/17/2012	$10,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
10/18/2012	$9,989.16	($10.84)	-0.11%
10/19/2012	$9,365.86	($634.14)	-6.77%
10/22/2012	$9,485.10	($514.90)	-5.43%

Good Luck Tomorrow!

We Lost the Battle, But Will Win the War

Hello Everyone,

Unfortunately, trading is not my sole source of income, and I had to go in to work today. I was out of the office all day (I'm a Civil Engineer), so I made my trades in pre-market, which can sometimes hurt a little bit. I sold my UVXY at $25.65 for a loss, but as I said in my last post, this was because I did not follow my own strategy. I then bought XIV for $18.44. These prices were certainly not the best prices of the day, but I had no choice because of my schedule for the day. However, I should explain that in my strategy the entrances are far less important than the exits. I don't mind sacrificing a few cents a share, when there are dollars to be made in the end.

I realize that I was not very specific in my first post, so I would like to explain my plan a little further. I will hold XIV until it hits approximately $19.25. My target narrows as the selling event comes closer. More importantly is the action of the VIX. Anyone who trades XIV or UVXY should know that they do NOT track the spot VIX price. They do, however, track the front month VIX future price, and the VIX futures generally follow the spot VIX. Therefore, I am holding XIV until the VIX spot price goes down to about 13.60. With next month's futures at 16.70, they have room to fall to catch up with a falling VIX.

Recap: Hold XIV and UVXY shorts until VIX falls to near 13.60.

Thank you!

Date	Account Value	Daily Gain/Loss	Total Percentage Gain/Loss
10/17/2012	$10,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
10/18/2012	$9,989.16	($10.84)	-0.11%

Very First Post!

Hello Everyone,

This is my very first blog, so please excuse me if there are any mistakes. This may take some getting used to. First, I'd like to explain the purpose of the blog. To be honest, I'm mostly doing this to help me stick to my proven strategy, and if I happen to help some people along the way, all the better. I have been trading for a few years now, so I'm still relatively new to this, but it's truly a passion of mine. I trade primarily in Short Term VIX Futures ETF's, and occasionally other ETF's. To be clear, I am not a professional trader, and nothing posted in this blog should be taken as anything other than an explanation of the reasoning behind my thinking.

Let's begin. Right now, I'm invested in UVXY, which was the motivator behind me starting this blog. While most people claim that UVXY is simply a fund to be shorted, but that is not true. Shorting this ETF constantly is not a bad idea, but you may miss out on some of the violent swings it makes. Instead, I prefer to play it both ways. I was previously in XIV, but because I didn't follow my own strategy, I lost about 16% in the past few days. Just being honest.

Recap: Continue holding XIV until noted otherwise, or close UVXY long positions as soon as possible to prevent further damage. Keep in mind that I will not give specific entry and exit points yet, but perhaps I will start in the near future. Since this is the first day, we'll start with $10,000, with no change for the day.

 

Date	Account Value	Daily Gain/Loss	Percentage Gain/Loss
10/17/2012	$10,000.00	$0.00	0.00%

Thanks Everyone!